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2005-05 Price Forecasting And Simulation Tools As a Mean For Assessing The Impact Of Market Regulation
September 19-21, 2005


  The West-European energy scenario has seen a fast evolution in the last years. The vertically integrated state-owned companies have been unbundled. Transmission network management has retained its original monopoly nature but has been assigned to independent operators in every Country, while competition has developed in generation and distribution, also in consequence of the sale to private investors of portions of the old generation park.
Unbundling has been then followed in many countries by the development of competitive energy markets and of the power-exchange organizations in charge to manage competitive sale of energy. New problems have arisen (e.g. exploitation of market power by incumbent producers and uncertainty on future revenue due to price volatitity) that required constant intervention of the regulatory Authorities in order to maintain conditions of level play field among the participants while ensuring an adequate level of hedging from price volatility.
Beyond the national perspective, the growth of interest for the international exchanges of energy, the so-called “cross-border trade”, has generated in the last years the necessity to regulate competition among the EU countries. Hence the European directive 1228/03. The sensibility to the necessity to develop a common Europe-wide Internal Energy Market has become stronger. The Florence Regulatory Forum has been created to discuss a common perspective in the Electricity field. The path towards a progressive tightening of the bounds between the European markets has been traced by the strategy paper on mid-term strategy of the EC.
A similar process of integration is now being implemented in the Energy Community of South East Europe, where a CBT mechanism has been introduced, coordinated auction of interconnection capacity are currently experimented and there is an already outlined Standard Market Design proposal for a future regional electricity market.
In this fast changing framework, that risks to generate uncertainties and frustration, simulation tools have an important role to play in order to assess the mid term and long term impact of possible regulatory changing.
A noteworthy research field that has seen in the last years a constantly growing interest from the academic world is the utilization of the so-called “games theory” to study market equilibrium in presence of complex regulatory frameworks.
The course is aimed at clarifying the most important ideas concerning games theory applied to electricity market simulation. To provide a more concrete view, two real simulators based on games theory will be treated in detail and hand-on sessions will allow to make the course participants aware of the complexity of the simulation studies that can be carried out with reference to real markets.


Dr. Gianluigi Migliavacca

   Gianluigi Migliavacca was born in 1965, received his degree in Electronic Engineering from the Politechnic University of Milan in 1991. In 1994 he was engaged in the Automation Research Center of ENEL where he has been responsible of research activities in the field of mathematical modeling and numerical methods for the dynamic simulation of thermal power plants. In 2000 he joined CESI in Milan where he works, now, on methodologies and studies on issues regarding energy markets and cross border trade. During the year 2003 he gave a significant contribution to a study on the implementation of locational signals in the frame of the evolution of the Internal Electricity Market of the European Community, carried out on behalf of EURELECTRIC. At present he is also involved in a consultancy to the Italian Energy and Gas Regulatory Authority about the so called Athens process, aiming at setting up a common competitive market for energy and gas in all the Countries of South East Europe.
At the same time he is also acting as a consultant for the Italian Energy and Gas Regulatory Authority about the issues regarding Cross Border Trade and congestion management issues in multi-national energy markets.
He is also member of the technical committee power plants and power systems of IFAC and involved in the evaluation process of the papers presented both to the IFAC World Congresses and to the Power Plants and Power systems Symposia.


Julian Barquin
Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Massimo Beccarello
Italian Energy Authority

Ettore Bompard
University of Torino

Jean-Marie Coulondre

Gianluigi Migliavacca

Florentina Mihailescu

Fabio Tambone
Italian Energy Authority

Course duration and location

Three days, from Monday 19th to Wednesday 21st of September 2005. CESI S.p.A., via Rubattino, 54, 20134, Milano - Italy.


Courses Contents

This course is targeted to post-graduate students interested both in an overview of the evolution trends of the European energy markets and in the modeling tools used for markets simulation in complex regulatory frameworks.

Although this course does not provide a systematic exposition of all the basics of games theory, nonetheless it can be also followed by those who are interested in a short introduction to games theory and, in particular, to its applications to the simulation of electricity markets.

Monday, September 19th

9.00 – 9.30 Course registration

9.30 – 11.30 Introduction to the course (G. Migliavacca)

10.45 – 11.00 Coffee Break

11.30 – 13.30 Evolution perspectives and necessity of integration of the electricity markets in the EU Countries (J. M. Coulondre)

13.30 – 14.30 Lunch

14.30 – 16.30 Evolution perspectives and necessity of integration of the electricity markets in the ECSEE Countries (F. Mihailescu)

15.30 – 15.45 Coffee Break

16.30 – 17.30 Engagement of the Italian Authority in the Florence and Athens processes (F. Tambone)

Tuesday, September 20th

9.00 – 12.30 Classification of market simulator. Basic of games theory (G. Migliavacca)

10.45 – 11.00 Coffee Break

12.30 – 13.30 Application of simulation to regulatory impact assessment (M. Beccarello)

13.30 – 14.30 Lunch

14.30 – 16.00 Illustration of CESI-Politecnico di Torino mid and long-term simulator (E. Bompard)

15.30 – 15.45 Coffee Break

16.00 – 17.30 Illustration of Comillas simulator (J. Barquin)

Wednesday, September 21st

9.00 – 12.30 Hands-on session with CESI-Politecnico di Torino simulator (E. Bompard)

10.45 – 11.00 Coffee Break

12.30 – 13.30 Lunch

13.30-17.00 Hands-on session with Comillas simulator (J. Barquin)

17.00-17.30 Course Conclusions (G. Migliavacca)

Course fees

The course fees include lectures, documentation, coffee breaks and lunches.

Members of the EES-UETP: 525 EUR
University non members of the EES-UETP: 900 EUR
Industry non members of the EES-UETP: 1500 EUR

Account n°: 00146956/01/40
ABA Routing n°: ABI 03069 CAB 09420
IBAN: IT 19 R 03069 09420 001469560140

And please send of fax a copy of the bank transfer to
Mrs. Anna Ballarini
Phone: +39 02 2125 5018
Fax: +39 02 2125 5579

Courses’ Cancellation Policy: notifications should be sent in writing to the course Coordinator. Cancellations received one week before the course will not be refunded.

Registration form

To register to the EES-UETP course, please download the form below, fill it up, and send or fax a copy before July 15th 2005 to:

Mrs. Anna Ballarini
CESI spa
Via Rubattino, 54
I-20134- Milano, Italy
Phone: +39 02 2125 5018
Fax: +39 02 2125 5579

Download Registration form

Download course brochure


Please visit our Website:
Special Prices have been arranged.
The price for a single-room with breakfast ranges from : 70 to 150 EUR.
The closest and most convenient accommodation is Hotel Gamma, via Valvassori Peroni, nr. 85 - tel. +39.02.26413152 – fax. 2640255. Reservations before August 15th, 2005 are warmly recommended.


Mrs. Anna Ballarini
CESI spa
Via Rubattino 54, I-20134 Milano, Italy
Phone: +39 02 2125 5018
Fax: +39 02 2125 5579